US Senate Electoral Migration Data

The data examines the electoral cartography of the US Senate, providing quantitative metrics used to analyse the structural geographic disadvantage faced by political parties, specifically focusing on the Democrats. It details the potential impact of plausible interstate migration levels on the proportionality of Senate representation. The material supports analysis related to demographic shifts and political outcomes across the 50 US states.

state: The identifier for each of the 50 unique US states included in the file. population: The recorded population figures for the respective states, which span from approximately 579 thousand to 39.5 million. biden: The total vote counts recorded for presidential candidate Joe Biden in each state, ranging from 73.5 thousand to 11.1 million. trump: The total vote counts recorded for presidential candidate Donald Trump in each state, with totals between 113 thousand and 6.01 million. difference: The calculated margin between the Biden and Trump vote totals in the state, exhibiting a range from a deficit of approximately 708 thousand votes to a surplus of 5.1 million votes. two_way: A fractional metric representing the two-way vote share, with values ranging from 0.28 to 0.68. expected_share: The modelled expected share metric, spanning values between 0.25 and 0.66. baseline_winning: A quantified probability or metric reflecting the baseline winning outlook, presented as a value between 0 and 1.

The information is provided in a small file format, shor_data_trimmed.csv, totalling 3.2 kB. The dataset contains 50 records, with each record representing a US state. All 8 columns are validated and appear complete, indicating no missing or mismatched entries across the records. The expected update frequency for this type of data is annually.

This data is highly suitable for political scientists interested in electoral modelling, particularly regarding the disproportionate representation in the US Senate. It is excellent for researchers investigating how demographic changes, driven by internal migration, reshape national political landscapes. The metrics can also be used in social science studies focused on population movement and political geography.

The geographical scope is restricted to all 50 US states. The core metrics relate to state population figures and presidential vote totals (Biden and Trump), alongside calculated electoral proportionality indicators. The findings have been used to illustrate scenarios, such as the pivotal role of Alaska in balancing Senate representation.

Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).

Political Analysts: To develop models that predict the Senate's political composition based on demographic projections. Academic Researchers: For conducting rigorous quantitative analysis in electoral studies, economics, and public policy. Journalists: To create data visualisations and analytical reports detailing the impact of population movement on the American political structure.

Original Data Source: US Senate Electoral Migration Data