Dark Mode
2024 US Presidential Betting Odds
Government & Civic Records
Tags and Keywords
Trusted By
"No reviews yet"
Free
About
Betting markets offer a distinct and potentially less flawed mechanism for estimating election outcomes compared to traditional polling, which often suffers from small sample sizes. Punters in these markets are financially incentivised to predict correctly, creating a dataset where the inverse of betting odds provides a bias-minimised estimate of winning probabilities. This dataset captures daily betting odds for the 2024 US Presidential Election, sourced from a British bookmaker, the Matchbook exchange, as US sportsbooks generally refrain from offering political betting lines.
Columns
- date: The specific calendar date for the recorded odds (most common value in sample: 21/11/2023).
- Donald Trump: Betting odds for Donald Trump (decimal format).
- Kamala Harris: Betting odds for Kamala Harris.
- Michelle Obama: Betting odds for Michelle Obama.
- Nikki Haley: Betting odds for Nikki Haley.
- RFK Jr: Betting odds for Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
- Hillary Clinton: Betting odds for Hillary Clinton.
- JD Vance: Betting odds for JD Vance (contains higher frequency of missing values in sample).
- Tim Walz: Betting odds for Tim Walz (contains higher frequency of missing values in sample).
- Gavin Newsom: Betting odds for Gavin Newsom.
Distribution
The dataset is provided in a CSV format (
2024ElectionOdds.csv) with a file size of approximately 11.22 kB. The sample analysis indicates 50 unique date records. The structure is a time series with columns representing individual candidates and rows representing specific dates. As of September 2024, matched volume on the exchange was approximately GBP 12 million.Usage
- Time Series Analysis: Tracking the fluctuation of candidate probabilities over time.
- Political Forecasting: Estimating the implied probability of election winners distinct from polling data.
- Data Visualisation: Creating probability curves and trend lines for the election cycle.
- Market Sentiment Analysis: Analysing how major political events impact financial incentives and betting behaviours.
Coverage
- Geographic Scope: United States (Election focus), United Kingdom (Market source).
- Time Range: Daily records leading up to the 2024 US Presidential Election. (Note: Effective September 2024, long-shot candidates are settled at 1000-1 odds, and only active two-sided markets below 1000-1 are updated).
- Demographic: Major and minor political figures involved in the 2024 US Presidential race.
- Data Notes: Data is sourced from the UK due to US restrictions on domestic political betting.
License
CC0: Public Domain
Who Can Use It
- Political Analysts: For alternative predictive models.
- Data Scientists: For practising time series forecasting and probability conversion.
- Economists: For studying prediction markets and information aggregation.
- Journalists: For reporting on election trends outside of standard opinion polls.
Dataset Name Suggestions
- 2024 US Presidential Betting Odds
- Matchbook Exchange Election Probabilities
- US Election 2024 Bookmaker Trends
- Daily Presidential Election Odds 2024
Attributes
Original Data Source:2024 US Presidential Betting Odds
QUALITYLoading...